Trucks | Future of Transportation for 2026.06.29
FoT is the intelligence arm of Trucks Venture Capital

Notable

Polestar denied authorization to sell cars in US from model year 2027 (link). It's unclear at this point what makes Geely's other brands 'Safe for Work' in the US (Volvo, Zeekr) but we'll find out in the coming months.

In the Phoenix market, consumers can no longer hail a Waymo on the Uber platform, reversing a cross-supply agreement that had been in place for over 18 months (link, link to original 2023 announcement). Uber has also removed Phoenix as a location where you can hail an AV ride on their website (link). The first major domino to fall in the Uber-Waymo breakup narrative?

On Amble's launch: 'Apple and Audi alumni have made a luxe EV based on the moon buggy' (link). This is a Trucks investment and a general idea we have been looking for over a decade. Julian was the designer of some legendary Audi models (R8, A4) and the CEO Adrien was formerly CEO of Cowboy. I was able to drive a prototype earlier this year and it's a very fun, open air kind of beach cruiser. The first customers are hospitality groups like high-end resports, with individual consumer units afterward. I want one to drive around our neighborhood. Link to the Amble site (link). 'We're getting the Apple Car after all' (link).

Wayve's positioning: be the best partner to automaker trying to sell L4 to their customers (link). 'While Stellantis used six cameras for the jury-rigged Grand Cherokees, the vehicles available for purchase in 2028 will sport 10 cameras and five radars, giving Wayve’s AI more data to rely on.' If you are running Mobileye strategy you wake up to each new Wayve partnership agreement and notice a new batch of hives forming on your skin.

Largest auto layoff in history: VW considers reduction of 100,000 workers, four plant closures (link). VW needs the financial fitness to survive as a volume car group and (somehow) execute a return to product focus. In its simplest terms, this means that the VW brand needs to prove it can still produce its core atomic unit of greatness (Golf/GTI). Everything great about the VW brand and VW group hinges upon that renaissance.

Underground trains in America are over-specified vs European trains (link). 'American subway tunnels use ~2x as many cross-passages as European subways for no meaningful reduction in fire-related deaths.'

Driver distraction design for ADAS and AVs is evolving: a new framework from researchers expands beyond distraction to dynamic, real-time driver attention support (link). From Dr Bryan Reimer: 'The core idea is simple but important: we need to understand whether the driver has enough situational knowledge to meet the demands of the current driving environment. If not, vehicle systems should help maintain or rebuild attention over time. That changes the design problem. It moves us from monitoring the driver to supporting the driver, and better aligns vehicle development with the Safe System Approach advocated by the U.S. DOT.'

Lyft says its AV partners 'must have a multi-sensor approach before we allow them on the platform' which seemingly only impacts Tesla at this point (link). This also (perhaps?) limits human-piloted cars on the platform from using Tesla's ADAS products like FSDS, although that isn't exactly clear from the statement. I asked CEO David Risher about this on LinkedIn but he hasn't responded yet (link).

Small satellite companies face a launch shortage as SpaceX's Falcon 9 rideshare missions are nearly full until 2029 (link). 'At least nine SpaceX partners and customers tell SpaceNews that SpaceX is not accepting Transporter reservations beyond late 2028 or early 2029, and the manifest for the next couple of years is nearly full. Some customers said they expect that SpaceX will extend Falcon 9 rideshares if its super heavy-lift Starship rocket does not come online as quickly as company leaders anticipate.'

Chinese innovation relies less and less on the US (link). 'U.S. policy increasingly seeks to slow China's technological rise by restricting its access to American science, on the assumption that Chinese innovation depends on U.S. science. Linking the full corpus of Chinese invention patents to the global scientific literature, we show that this dependence has fallen in recent years: the share of the China-produced science behind Chinese patents rose from 1% in 2000 to 26% in 2025, overtaking the U.S. share in 2021. As China's reliance on U.S.-produced science fades, policies restricting access fall out of alignment with the U.S.' actual strategic position.'

How Honda's all-EV gamble fell apart (link). From a former Honda exec and FoT reader: 'Honda is a world-class engine company and we never culturally understood how we could transfer that passion to motors and batteries. Or at least the company hasn't yet.'

US considers removing brake pedal requirement in vehicles, potentially giving a boost to AV-only products (link).

Video: a cinematic car movie scene using a running treadmill and lights (link). Video: at speed in the Lodève Hill Climb inside a Norma prototype (link). Via TO. Video: Xiaomi YU7 GT runs driverless at the Nordschleife (link). Via Adam G.

Mysterious vigilante dubbed ‘Mexican Batman’ hunting down motorcycle thieves & duct taping them to street poles (link). Via Jen G.

M&A / Deals / Changes:

In the biggest AV IPO of the year, China's Momenta is expected to start listing on the Hong Kong exchange within the next two weeks (link). Valuation is expected near $9B.

May Mobility expands into Europe with Geely's CaoCao ridehailing platform (link).

Robinson Helicopter will turn its venerable R66 into an uncrewed asset for defense applications with Skyryse's SkyOS platform (link).

AI freight startup Cargofy raises $11M (link). Led by U Ventures.

Micromobility startup Lime seeks $180M in its upcoming IPO, with a valuation around $1.7B (link). Trading is expected to begin in the coming week.

AV fleet ops startup Aseon raises $10M (link). Led by Crane Venture Partners.

Trek's B Cycle combines with Bicycle Transit System to become Revolution BTS (link).

German car sharing startup Finn raises $160M (link). Led by Portage.

AV infrastructure startup Terawatt raises $300M in debt financing (link).

Board & Executive Changes:

Serve Robotics: Andreas Lieber joins board; succeeds Sarfraz Maredia (link).

Goodyear Tire & Rubber: Christina Zamarro departs as CFO (link).

Harley-Davidson: Gayle Littleton named Chief Legal Officer, succeeding Paul Krause (link).

Polaris: Dustin Semach joins board (link).

Lucid Group: Marc Winterhoff departs as COO (link).

Curated Jobs:

View over new 1130 active job listings from companies like Flexport (link), Nevoya (link) and Scout Motors (link) on MobilityJobs. Post your own jobs for free.

Machine Learning Engineer II - Autonomous Driving Performance Evaluation at May Mobility, remote (link).

Principal Software Engineer - (Platform & Applications - CloudApps) at Motional in Singapore, Central, Singapore (link).

New Stuff:

Waymo reportedly looking to expand to Europe with new Germany division registered (link).

Uber is making background checks stricter for all US drivers to stop people with serious crimes from working (link). 'The policy will lead to the removal of tens of thousands of existing gig workers, or about 0.5% of the active force in the US, according to the company. Uber had 10 million drivers and couriers worldwide as of April.'

Zoox's launches its next-generation robotaxi with upgraded interior features, mostly similar on the exterior (link).

Quarter20 launches as the CAD-connected wiki for hardware (link).

Ian Callum has a vision of a reimagined Jaguar XJ220 (link). Funny how it feels like Callum is doing more for Jaguar as an outsider the designers at Jaguar JLR.

The 'Make it in Michigan' grant program: $100,000 grant for companies building in the fields of autonomous systems, critical mobility components, or electrification (link).

This Hot Wheels car drove 13,459 scale miles in 5 days (link, link to video). Via TO.

Visualizing low-earth orbiting stuff (link). Via Carly N.

Patents & Patent Applications:

Ferrari's patent application shows gated 'manual' transmission that's really a dual-clutch automatic (link).

Statistics / Projections:

Consumers now assume ecommerce 'free delivery' arrives in 2.6 days, not the 3.5 that was the norm for the last 5 years (link). Via AlixPartners.

Rise in gasoline prices caused 'financial hardship' for 2/3 of households surveyed (link). Via Axios / Gallup.

Airline ticket prices for popular US domestic routes rose 35% this summer compared with last year, reversing three years of price declines (link). Via NYT / Skiplagged. 'Fares for popular international routes are up by about 15%.'

New cars are growing 1.2 cm longer every year, which will knock out up to 14% of on-street parking by 2040 (link). Via Cleantechnica / T&E and Clean Cities.

China's EV exports hit a record $9.2B in May 2026, up almost 50% from a year earlier (link). Via TechinAsia / China's General Administration of Customs.

With the average US vehicle aging 13 years, U.S. auto aftermarket forecast to grow 5.4% (link). Via Automotive News / Auto Care Association.

Thank you:

Thank you to Michael Dunne (link), Danny Ellis (link), David Merrill (link), Diego Rodriguez (link) and Gabriel Scheer (link) for offers of introductions to new founders, investors and friends over the last week.

Trucks portfolio companies mentioned in this issue:

Amble (link), May Mobility (link), Motional (link), Quarter20 (link), Skyryse (link). View the full portfolio of Trucks companies (link).

'The paradox of cultivating innovation is that confidence in outcomes is itself an enabler of innovation; a wise gardener knows that roses are the best authorities on the creation of rosiness, and until they bloom, only checks in to see if they need more food and water.' - Diego Rodriguez

Reilly Brennan