Trucks | Future of Transportation for 2026.07.20
FoT is the intelligence arm of Trucks Venture Capital

Notable

Uber lobbies for rules that require AVs to share platforms with human drivers, while Waymo opposes them (link). We are seeing the bright lines of the Uber-Waymo divide forming. Uber dominance requires AV technology to happen at a pace they control, given their complicated (and successful) supply and demand dynamics. Waymo, on the other hand, needs AV deployment to move as quickly as its technology and operations allow, without being forced to preserve the human-driver marketplace that underpins Uber’s advantage. If Uber's 'human + AV' policy push is successful in more regions, it could very well push Waymo into doing something it doesn't really want to do: acquiring Lyft.

Airports and ride-hailing need each other: SFO alone generated more than $60 million in pick-up and drop-off fees from Uber and Lyft in 2025 (link). 'For ride-hailing companies, airport trips are among the most valuable rides. At LAX, Uber and Lyft account for around 20% of all ground transportation trips, while roughly 10% of trips by the two companies in NYC begin or end at JFK or LGA.'

Which green technology to subsidize? (link). Using South Korean market data, researchers found that subsidizing a less-than-cleanest vehicle technology (hybrids) can reduce total emissions more effectively than subsidizing the greenest option (BEV), because it pulls more buyers away from high-polluting vehicles. 'Reallocating existing subsidies from battery electric vehicles (BEVs), the cleanest technology, to hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), an intermediate technology, would reduce total greenhouse gas emissions by an additional 47%. Second, for a BEV-focused subsidy policy to outperform an HEV-focused policy, the carbon intensity of electricity generation would need to fall by approximately 45%. Our findings suggest that HEV subsidies remain more effective than BEV subsidies until consumers become sufficiently willing to switch to BEVs or electricity generation becomes sufficiently decarbonized.'

Bike lanes and speed cameras disappear from the DOT's list of proven safety measures (link).

iPhone maker Foxconn postpones U.S. launch of EV crossover because of tariffs, pivots to Poland, Japan (link).

Raw material constraints — specifically shortages of lithium, cobalt, and nickel — will significantly limit EV adoption timelines in ways that prior models have underestimated (link). 'We find that neglecting critical metal constraints would overestimate electric vehicle ownership by up to 42% in 2060 and underestimate carbon dioxide emissions and transition cost by up to 57% and 6% during 2025–2060, respectively for China.'

Vehicles might be automated, but the systems around it are not (link). 'Emergency response is only one example. Automated vehicles have also struggled with construction zones, flooded roads, school zones, and major public events. These situations do not always follow predictable patterns. They require vehicles to recognize uncertainty, interpret human behavior, and respond appropriately to changing conditions. These are not exceptions to driving. They are driving.'

The biggest opponent to AVs? It might be the trial lawyers (link). 'Let the insurers decide how much to charge Tesla robotaxis and FSD drivers–they will internalize the externality far better than tort lawyers.' Related: 'We demand machines that function flawlessly, while accepting human-caused deaths and injuries as the cost of our daily travel' (link).

Video: Porsche driver Dirk Schouten at full 4-wheel air at Spa (link). Via Clay and Diego. Video: Keeping all my car spec sheets at the ready (link). Via TO.

'How I created a digital twin of a North Korean oil tanker' (link).

M&A / Deals / Changes:

Hyundai Motor Group acquires remainder of Boston Dynamics in full after buying out (link).

Vehicle inspection startup Self Inspection raises $10M (link). Led by Sandberg Bernthal Venture Partners.

Norwegian autonomy company Hive raises $15M (link). Led by SuperSeed.

Midwestern tire retailer Belle Tire acquired by Big Brand Tire & Service (link).

Indian fleet management startup Milo Drive raises $2.4M (link). Led by Caret Capital and Antler.

Spatial data startup Skycatch acquired by heavy equipment maker Caterpillar (link).

Uber announces acquisition offer for Delivery Hero for $14.8B (link).

Mobile bike repair startup Tyred raises $3.4M (link). Led by Raw Ventures and Ada Ventures.

Lucid rejects take-private, bankruptcy report after shares plunge (link).

Board & Executive Changes:

JetZero: Patrick Shanahan and Eric Hirshberg join board (link).

American Airlines: John Dietrich joins board (link).

Allstate: Christian Lown named CFO; succeeds Jess Merten who moves to President, Property Liability (link).

Curated Jobs:

View over new 1370 active job listings from companies, including over 25 at Havoc AI (link).

Sales Development Representative at Carvis in San Francisco, CA USA (link).

New Stuff:

Food Never Come is a fake food delivery app for people who don't want to eat, just pay for things to eat (link). Via Jane D.

Zoox recalls AVs after incident at smoky scene of fire (link).

Final Lap launches as a live auction car online platform (link).

Chip launches as a small $15k neighborhood vehicle (link).

Bingo's launch event for the E2 takes place next Tuesday in Nairobi (link).

Isuzu tests swappable batteries in electric garbage trucks (link).

Patents & Patent Applications:

Ford's patent application shows one cellular connection can be used over a caravan of vehicles (link).

Statistics / Projections:

China speed: around 650 new or refreshed cars were introduced in the first half of 2026 in the country — a rate of almost 4 per day (link). Via Bloomberg / Dongchedi.

A study of 18k licensed drivers across 17 countries found that 'perceived usefulness' was the strongest predictor of interest in Level 3 ADAS, followed by social approval and expected enjoyment (link) Via Emerging Technologies. 'Together, these factors explained 82.7% of the variation in adoption intent, while age, gender and prior ADAS experience had only minimal effects.'

Diesel hits $5 a gallon again, up 33% since the Iran War (link). Via NYT / AAA.

Walmart installed more EV charters in Q2 2026 than Electrify America, EVGo, or Ionna (link). Via Inside EVs.

Thank you:

Thank you to Tu Le (link), Patrick Hunt (link), Eric Mun (link) and Daniel Schmahl (link) for offers of introductions to new founders, investors and friends over the last week.

Trucks portfolio companies mentioned in this issue:

Bingo (link), Carvis (link), Havoc AI (link), JetZero (link). View the full portfolio of Trucks companies (link).

‘If at first you don't succeed, failure may be your style.’ (Quentin Crisp)

Reilly Brennan