Trucks | Future of Transportation for 2026.10.05
FoT is the intelligence arm of Trucks Venture Capital

Notable

The Trump administration finalized weaker fuel-economy requirements, lowering the projected 2031 fleet average from 50.4 mpg to 34.9 mpg, or a drop of about 31% (link). 'DOT estimates $1,289 less in compliance costs per vehicle, but more than $1,600 in additional lifetime fuel costs and 4.6% more gasoline consumption through 2050 versus the Biden rules.'

Mavis, Midas and Pep Boys are on a tear as the average car is now 13 years old and more complex than ever (link). Via RN. 'Some 32,000 auto mechanic businesses have opened in the U.S. since 2018, a 12% increase, according to Cox. Those shops, including chains and mom-and-pop mechanics, are peeling ever more business away from dealerships, known for higher rates, opaque pricing and multiday waits for routine service.'

California added new accountability requirements for autonomous vehicles, including penalties for blocking first responders (link). Via Louis S.

Tesla's robotaxi service doesn't operate all night long and previously stopped at 10PM, now moving to 11PM (link). Musk: 'The main thing we’re trying to solve is making sure that we don’t run over pets when they’re hard to see at night. Literally trying to avoid grey kittens on grey tarmac in the dark.' What if there was a sensor that allowed you to see that in the dark? Would probably be valuable right now.

OEM vehicle apps are doggy doors to advertising hellscapes: researchers find that for most vehicles, adding the app at least doubled the number of advertising, tracking and analytics companies contacted (link). 70% of apps contacted more than 5 advertising, tracking or analytics domains, compared with 29% of vehicles. 'Cadillac’s app added 26 companies beyond those contacted by the vehicle; Nissan and Toyota each added 25.'

China’s 2,250kW chargers are already in service, while US thinks about 750kW next year (link).

US considering red-dye diesel for on-road use (link). 'Red-dyed diesel is essentially diesel but exempt from highway fuel taxes. It is generally sold for use in equipment and vehicles ​that are not usually operated on public roadways, but for places like farms and construction sites. Because it is intended for off-road use, it is exempt from taxes applied to diesel fuel sold for highway transportation. The red dye serves as a tax-enforcement marker, indicating that highway taxes have not ​been paid.'

Video: drones in war are dropping molten iron on targets (link). Video: hill bombing 80s MTB style (link). Video: building a 3D printed motorbike (link). Video: wrap-up video of DoorDash's annual summit, including more details on its drone program (link). Video: Filmmaker Jeff Zwart on Brian Scotto's podcast (link). Via Diego.

M&A / Deals / Changes:

EV truck startup Harbinger wins $300M FedEx order (link). 'Harbinger estimates that each of the electric Class 5 and 6 medium-duty box trucks delivered will reduce FedEx’ fuel costs by around $20,000 annually compared with the conventional diesel-powered vehicle they replace.' So overall it's a $300M buy for $800M in diesel savings.

Ikea picks Kodiak for AV truck partnership (link). 'The unsupervised long-haul service between Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston looks to launch by the end of 2026.'

Maritime intelligence startup Quartermaster raises $140M (link). Led by Insight and Overmatch Ventures.

US/Indian physical AI startup SiMA raises $150M (link). Led by Fidelity Management & Research Company and Amplify Partners.

Chinese AV startup Momenta added Jeep and Peugeot to its expanding automaker relationships (link). 'The two companies will jointly develop an advanced intelligent driving assistance system for new mass-produced Peugeot ​and Jeep models.'

NIO sells 30% of battery swap unit to Geely for over $2B (link).

Ford aims to award up to $1B to suppliers via Michigan LIFT program (link). 'Michigan LIFT, launched in Detroit on 29 September, gives carmakers and other industrial buyers a place to post their hardest production problems and invites suppliers to solve them, with financing and state support lined up behind any solution that shows promise. Ford is the anchor buyer and JPMorganChase the founding capital provider. The State of Michigan, Michigan Central and Newlab complete the founding line-up.'

Valeo announced it will be the production integrator for Nissan’s Wayve-powered ProPILOT program (link).

Board & Executive Changes:

Johnson Controls: Julie Brandt departs as Divisional President, Global Commercial & Field Ops (link).

Airbus: Amparo Moraleda named chair of board (link).

Daimler Truck: Yvonne Bettkober joins board (link).

Hertz Global: Robert Davis, Nils Larsen, Adam Zirkin join board, replacing Francis Blake, Lucy Clark Dougherty, Thomas Wagner (link).

Verra Mobility: Jon Newhard named CEO, joins board (link).

Curated Jobs:

View over new 1303 active job listings from companies, including Manna (link) and Lyft (link).

Software Engineer - Embedded Linux Operating Systems at Zoox in Foster City, CA (link).

Principal Frontend Engineer at Havoc AI, remote (link).

New Stuff:

Driving Bench is an experiment to give frontier models controls to drive a real car (link). Via Weans.

SpaceX Starship puts upgraded satellites in orbit for first time (link).

Researchers introduce a framework for evaluating whether AI-generated driving scenarios are physically consistent with real-world vehicle dynamics (link).

A map of all the lighthouses in the world (link). Via JD.

Patents & Patent Applications:

Tesla's patent application shows a vehicle that uses battery-powered fans to generate downforce, including at low speeds (link). Possible preview of upcoming Roadster launch.

Statistics / Projections:

In the US, average new car payments rose to $821 last month (link). Via Bloomberg / JD Power.

ADAS users are handing over more responsibility than expected: 28% reported making fewer head checks and 21% reported engaging more frequently in secondary tasks when ADAS was enabled (link). Via Transportation Research.

Uber wait times increasing: The time between when Uber matched a driver with a rider and when the car arrived grew 19% between the first quarter of 2023 and the same period this year (link). Via Business Insider / Columbia Business School.

Thank you:

Thank you to Skylar Bennethum (link), Danny Ellis (link), Jim Haas (link), Justin LaRocca (link) and Ryan Sells (link) for offers of introductions to new founders, investors and friends over the last week.

Trucks portfolio companies mentioned in this issue:

Havoc AI (link). View the full portfolio of Trucks companies (link).

‘You must go on. I can’t go on. I’ll go on’ (S. Beckett)

Reilly Brennan