Trucks | Future of Transportation for 2026.02.02
FoT is the intelligence arm of Trucks Venture Capital

Notable

A Waymo AV hit a child in Santa Monica on Jan 23 and the details are starting to emerge (link, link to Waymo's comment). 'Waymo said its robotaxi struck the child at 6 miles per hour, after braking “hard” from around 17 miles per hour…the child sustained minor injuries.' The two main positions here are: 'If this had been a human driver, the crash would have been worse' vs 'a human driver would have hit the child harder isn't going to work as an argument.' Within this conflict rests the entirety of the autonomous vehicle paradox.

Understanding the bike industry's multi-year crisis (link). 'We’re in year 3, at least, of the crisis, which is overproduction and oversupply created from the COVID boom. Capacity that had been serving Asian markets suddenly got turned on for North America. All of a sudden there were too many bikes.'

Seeing like a sedan: which sensor approach will win in AVs? (link).

WSJ's Joanna Stern: 'I test drove a Chinese EV. Now I don’t want to buy American cars anymore.' (link). While most US auto executives and politicians say they don't want Chinese cars in the US, we are seeing some journalists changing their tune rather quickly. And, in private rooms and text threads, American car dealers are the party wanting them here the most. All have heard stories about their grandpappy who bought the first Toyota or Subaru franchise decades ago and want to be first line for a BYD or Xiaomi store. We'll have Chinese cars for sale here in the US just yet (link).

Recent ADAS subscriber stats from earnings calls: Tesla has 1.1M FSD ADAS subscribers (link), GM's SuperCruise ADAS has 620,000 subscribers, with a retention rate in the 40% range post its three-year paid initial period (link). The next step, which Tesla is starting to preview, will likely be 'subscription-only' trims and packages. ‘Subscription’ has effectively become a new product planning force within carmakers, like cupholder-maximalists or active-lifestyle-intenders for previous generations of the craft.

Canada threatened with aircraft decertification in latest Trump dustup (link). 'If the United States were to decertify all Canadian-made aircraft, it could hamstring commercial air travel and medical transportation. There are about 5,400 Canadian-made aircraft in regular use in the United States, with another 600 in storage, according to Cirium, an aviation data firm.'

Scout realizes it is probably an EREV-first brand (link). What an incredible (positive) positioning if they take advantage of it. As of right now Scout's marketing and communications is still positioning the launch vehicles as EV first.

Video: totally locked in as a competitive Hong Kong taxi driver (link). Video: moto 'skylab' (link). Via Diego. Video: Waymo Zeekr prototype seen running off a road in Los Angeles, apparently under human control (link).

M&A / Deals / Changes:

Waymo reportedly close to a new round of financing, $16B of new money with a post-money valuation of $110B, and Alphabet leading with 3/4 of the money (link). Via FT. This mostly confirms Bloomberg's report from December (link).

AV startup Waabi raises $750M, plus another $250M in milestone-based funding from Uber as the company expands into robotaxis (link). Via Roger.

Nvidia, Mercedes-Benz move forward on AV robotaxi partnership (link). 'The robotaxi platform will attach to Mercedes’ new MB.OS software, which lets partners build complex applications such as highly automated driving on top of the carmaker’s central operating system. The approach allows Mercedes to retain control of its core software while drawing on expertise from elsewhere for costly, specialized components like self-driving.'

Chinese AV trucking startup Deepway raises $172M (link). Led by ABC Impact, Lenovo Capital and Puhua Capital.

AV trucking startup Gatik announces $600M in contract AV trucking revenue, with hundreds of trucks on the road by end of year (link).

Robot startup Diligent Robotics acquired by Serve Robotics (link).

Uber launches 'AV Labs' division to share data across its more than 20 partners (link). Via Henry.

Board & Executive Changes:

QuantumScape: Geoffrey Ribar joins board (link).

Openlane: Sanjeev Mehra resigns from board (link).

Lyft: Deborah Hersman joins board (link).

Curated Jobs:

Senior Product Manager, Fleet Software at Gatik in Mountain View, CA, USA (link).

Head of Service at BasiGo in Nairobi, Kenya (link).

Hiring? Post a job (link). If you're a startup, use code 'Trucks' for free standard listings.

Hunting? View all 281 postings on the MobilityJobs job board (link).

New Stuff:

Waymo is now active at SFO airport, but the pick up/drop off location is so far that it's not better than other ridehailing options (link).

Tesla to install its Semi chargers at Pilot Travel Centers (link). 'According to Tesla, the majority of a Semi truck’s 500-mile range can be recovered in a 30-minute charge session. This is designed to match a mandated 30-minute break that drivers must take as part of their hours of service.'

WEX adds public EV charging payments to its fleet fuel card (link). John Voelcker: 'Even EV advocates likely ignored this story...They shouldn't have. Getting EV charging onto fleet fueling cards, in parity with gasoline + diesel payments, is huge.'

Patents & Patent Applications:

GM's patent application shows active downforce during drifting (link).

Statistics / Projections:

All Airbus and Boeing narrowbody jets are sold-out until at least 2035 (link). Via Avolon report.

Only 14% of global consumers now plan EV purchases, marking a steep decline from previous years; down from 34% in 2024 and 48% in 2023 (link). Via EY / Battery Technology.

1 in 10 new cars sold in Europe is made by a Chinese company (link). Via Bloomberg.

Irish drone startup Manna reports it has completed over 250,000 deliveries (link). Via RTE.

Thank you:

Thank you to Mariano Menkes (link), Tom McQuillen (link), Surbhi Nakano (link), Haley Prout (link) and Emily Shao (link) for offers of introductions to new founders, investors and friends over the last week.

Trucks portfolio companies mentioned in this issue:

BasiGo (link), Gatik (link). View the full portfolio of Trucks companies (link).

In any moment of decision, the best thing you can do is the right thing, the next best thing is the wrong thing, and the worst thing you can do is nothing (W. Trevor),

Reilly Brennan